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Northcott Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)
Northcott.surf.statistics.mayW.animatedW.label.animated

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

This picture illustrates the combination of swells directed at Northcott through an average May and is based upon 2838 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Northcott. In this particular case the best grid node is 19 km away (12 miles). The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These occurred 15% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens. The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was W (which was the same as the most common wind direction). Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Northcott and offshore. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Northcott, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical May, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Northcott run for about 35% of the time.

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  • Northcott.surf.statistics.aprilW.animated
  • Northcott.surf.statistics.mayW.animated
  • Northcott.surf.statistics.juneW.animated
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  • Northcott.surf.statistics.decemberW.animated

Also see Northcott wind stats

Compare Northcott with another surf break